The science of asteroids and comets continues its embarrassing backslide into irrelevance, aided and abetted by stenographic science journalists who don’t ask hard questions. If it weren’t so crass, we would suggest a parallel between the current comet science situation and the run-up to the Iraq war, something like: “Faulty paradigm leads to debacle; no consequences for continued failure; neutered press goes along.”
The faulty paradigm is that comets and asteroids formed from leftover debris in the early solar system. Although it’s the dominant paradigm, it has not yielded anything but total failure in terms of making predictions. If the dominant paradigm were correct, the stories in the scientific press would read like this: “Comet observations confirm theory.” However, the record of all recent observations has been one of continual surprise. And science journalists will not stand up to the scientists and say, “Enough.” Instead, they dutifully report that the dominant paradigm is still dominant - even though the data constantly contradicts it. It’s a bait-and-switch one sees time and again over the years, and the form it takes is this: “Report surprising data; transcribe scientists’ comments expressing surprise; close article with reminder that comets and asteroids formed in the early solar system.” What no one can explain is how anyone can confidently say that comets and asteroids formed in the early solar system, when the data yields nothing but surprises and contradictions. It is irresponsible to fail to hold this paradigm to account. Watch how this issue has played out in the pages of New Scientist, normally one of the more progressive science magazines:
24 January 2008 . “…Early on, scientists found surprising evidence that (comet) Wild 2 contained some material from the inner solar system that had been heated to more than 1000° C due to its proximity to the Sun … Now, scientists have been surprised again as further study suggests Wild 2 is made mostly of material from the inner solar system, and that the object has a composition more like that of an asteroid than what was expected of a comet … It was expected that the comet would contain pristine material … from the cloud of gas and dust that formed the solar system about 4.5 billion years ago, since the comet would have been unaltered by heat so far from the Sun. But this study, along with previous measurements of atomic isotopes in the Stardust samples, suggests the comet is not a good probe of this primitive material.” (Comment: it actually suggests that neither comets nor asteroids are made of “primitive material” at all – which should point to the conclusion that they are chunks of an exploded planet, the only alternative.)
26 September 2007. “(Comet) P/2007 R5 is not the only object that has been difficult to classify as either asteroid or comet. In the past few years, objects in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter have been found to sport comet-like tails. ‘We’re finding now that it’s not so cut and dry.’” (Comment: the fact that comets and asteroids appear to be identical has long been expected by proponents of the exploded planet theory.)
14 March 2006. Comet Wild 2 contains elements that formed at white-hot temps: “surprising,” “remarkable.”
08 September 2005. Comet Tempel 1 is revealed by Deep Impact to contain clay and carbonates which could only have formed in liquid water: “creates problems,” “rewrite(s) how we think.” (Comment: no evidence that comet scientists have rewritten how they think, despite being wrong.)
20 July 2005. Impacts can give facelifts to asteroids, casting doubt on currently accepted asteroid ages: “…casts doubt on the reliability of current asteroid dating methods,” “calls into question the habit of dating asteroid surfaces through their cratering record.” (Comment: deflates certainty about asteroids’ supposed early formation.)
04 July 2005. Struck by Deep Impact, Comet Tempel 1 confounds the expectations of everyone involved by acting like a solid body (expected by exploded planet theory) instead of a rubble pile (expected by dominant paradigm): “‘Geez … going to take some explanation.’”
Time to take the dominant paradigm around the barn and shoot it.